What we know so far about tornadoes in Europe?

Today I have submitted to Monthly Weather Review a manuscript written together with David M. Schultz and Fiona Lomas (University of Manchester) on European tornadoes. The manuscript, a synthesis of the European tornado datasets, is also a short history of tornado observations in Europe and a literature review of the major contributions on tornado research in Europe.  

There are three reasons for which we believe that this research was necessary. First, there is not a widespread recognition or the threat of tornadoes in Europe, and this lead to an underestimate of the importance of tornadoes in the current climate in Europe. Second, to better understand the climatology of tornadoes in Europe we need to understand the evolution of tornado databases for different European countries and to identifying the major influences on the development of these databases. Third,  when considering the possible influence of climate change on severe convective storms, the first step is to consider the
observational data. Without knowing what is occurring now, how many tornadoes occur each
year in Europe, and what is the current spatial distribution of tornadoes, all the analyses
of the influence of climate change on tornadoes are premature.

We hoped that this manuscript of the current knowledge on tornadoes in Europe [in a way, this is a companion paper to Groenemeijer & Kühne (2014)] will encourage further discussions and stimulate the interest of the scientific community, national meteorological services and the public on European tornadoes. We hope that this would result in increased awareness, in the identification of new data sources, or in the initiation of new databases that would allow a extension of the current European tornado database both in time and in space. 

You can read the draft of the paper here.

Cosmic Meteorology (1623) by Robert Fludd

Recently, browsing through Gallica, the digital library of the Bibliothèque Nationale de France, I have found this book, containing illustrations from the Cosmic Meteorology by Robert Fludd. I was sufficiently intrigued to try to find more about the book, especially because one of the illustrations contained, among other meteorological phenomena, a representation of a tornado.

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Robert Fludd (1574 –1637) (image courtesy of Smithsonian Library).

Philosophia Sacra et Vere Christiana seu Meteorologia Cosmica was first published by Théodore de Bry at Frankfurt  in 1623. I was to some extent familiar with the author, Robert Fludd, through the works of Frances Yates (1899 –1981). Robert Fludd (1574 –1637), an English mystic, philosopher, alchemist, scientist and musician, was educated at Oxford and practised medicine in London. In addition to his medical practice, influenced by the doctrines of Paracelsus (1493–1541), he published a large number of books, richly illustrated and covering medical, practical and speculative topics in an attempt to reconcile the mysticism with the science of 17th Century.  In the Cosmic Meteorology, Fludd applies the word meteor not only to meteorological phenomena but also to planets, starts and comets. 

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Fig.1 - Frontispiece of Philosophia Sacra et Vere Christiana seu Meteorologia Cosmica  (Frankfurt, 1623) with engravingsby Matthäus Merian ( 1593 –1650). (image courtesy of Gallica)

 The frontispiece of the book (Fig.1) shows, according to Godwin (1979) the effects of the macrocosmic meteors and in particular of the wind. The wind played a central role in Fludd's medical speculations, since was capable to carry the good (from angels) and the bad (from demons) influences (lower centre). One illustration from the frontispiece shows the beneficial effects of the winds (lower right), the others are showing the detrimental effects: an earthquake, produce by the wind bellow the earth's surface (lower right), a "rain of fire" (upper left), a thunderstorm producing rain, lighting and hail (upper centre) and a thunderstorm at sea (upper right). The left and right middle panels are showing different types of comets (right) and parhelia (sundogs, left).   

The most fascinating illustration by Matthäus Merian (1593 –1650) from Cosmic Meteorology is the Great Meteorological Chart (Fig. 2). In Godwin's (1979) interpretation, God is represented on the top of the chart and the semicircles contains representations of all the meteorological phenomena. Different types of comets are represented first, followed clouds and their associated phenomena: whirlwind and a tornado (turbo and prester as fiery exhalations, left) (Fig. 3),  blood (gutta sanguinia), stone (lapides) and frog (rane) rains and lightning (fulmen) (centre) and hail (grando), rain (pluuia) and shown (nix) (right).  

Below the clouds are represented the twelve winds and at the surface there is an other representation of a whirlwind (turbo) (centre) (Fig. 4).  On the lower left is a list of "meteors sent for man's benefit" (i.e., wind, whirlwinds, cold, ice, rain, lightning) and on the lower right a list of "meteors sent for man's chastisement or punishment" (i.e., fiery whirlwinds, with and without demons; lighting, hail) (Godwind, 1979).    

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Fig. 2 - The Great Meteorological Chart from Cosmic Meteorology (1626) by Robert Fludd. (image courtesy of archive.rog) (click here more details).

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Fig. 3 - Detail (lower left) from The Great Meteorological Chart showing a whirlwind (turbo) and a tornado (prester, fiery exhalation). (image courtesy of archive.rog)

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Fig. 4 - Detail (lower left) from The Great Meteorological Chart showing a whirlwind (turbo). (image courtesy of archive.rog)

The Great Meteorological Chart, despite being a part of a mystical text, is a very interesting summary of the knowledge on meteorological phenomena in the 17th Century.

References

Godwin, J., 1979: Robert Fludd, Hermetic Philosopher and Surveyor of Two Worlds. Thames and Hudson, p. 96.  

An early contribution to the study of tornadoes in Romania

One of the few tornadoes reported in Romania during the socialist period (1945–1989, Antonescu and Bell 2015) occurred on 9 May 1963 at Satu Mare (Raionul Rădăuți in 1963, Suceava County today, Fig. 1). In the same year an article, analysing the evolution of the tornado, was published by V. Țigănescu in Natura (The Nature) a scientific journal devoted to Geography and Geology*.  The article contains probably the most detailed description of the evolution, damages and atmospheric conditions associated with a tornado that occurred in Romania before 2002, when an F3+ long-track tornado crossing through southeastern Romania was responsible for at least three fatalities in the village of Făcăeni (Lemon et al. 2003). Țigănescu (1963) mentions at the beginning of the article, that tornadoes (he uses landspouts - trombe de uscat) do occur in Romania but they are rare events and that the tornado from Satu Mare offers a good opportunity to analyse them. 

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Fig. 1 - Spatial distribution of tornado reports during the socialist period (7 reports between 1945 and 1989) in Romania. Tornadoes were classified according to their intensity on the F scale for weak tornadoes (F0 or F1) (yellow) and significant tornadoes (F2 and F3) (red). Tornadoes for which an estimation of the intensity was not possible are represented in blue. The yellow rectangle highlights the location of the Satu Mare tornado. [Adapted from Fig. 4 in Antonescu and Bell 2015.]

The tornado was first observed around 12:30 local time (14:30 UTC) as "a column of dens air stretching form the clouds to the ground". At the beginning, a fifth of the column was black and the rest was white. Once the funnel cloud reached the ground, the base of the column darkened and the debris clearly indicated the rotation of the column (Fig. 2). Based on eyewitnesses reports and damages surveys, Țigănescu (1963) estimated that hight of the "column" was 600–800 m with a diameter of 30–40 m, the path length was approximately 5.5 km from southeast to northwest and the duration between 15–20 minutes. (Some of the eyewitnesses described the tornado as a dragon, see this post for more details about the dragons and tornadoes in Romania.) 

After a short description of the atmospheric conditions associated with the tornado occurrence, Țigănescu (1963) concluded that tornadoes can occur in other parts of Romania if "the right conditions arise" (i.e., "an exceptional difference in air density in a relatively small space") and that some of these tornadoes can be high impact events. Unfortunatelly, Țigănescu's study did not had an impact on the meteorological community and for the next 25 years was believed that tornadoes do not occur in Romania (Antonescu and Bell 2015).  

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Fig. 2 - The tornado seen from northwest (left) and west (right). The phases indicates the descent of the funnel cloud. This is one of the earliest representation of a tornado published in the Romanian scientific literature. [Adapted from Figs. 3 and 4 in Tiganescu (1963).]

[*) The article:  Țigănescu, V, 1963: Tromba de uscat de la Satu Mare - Rădăuți. Natura (Seria Geografie-Geologie), 5, 43–51, is available here, courtesy of the University of Manchester Library and "Carol I" Central University Library in Bucharest. ]

The first tornado climatology for Romania

The latest issue of the Monthly Weather Review (March 2015) contains the first tornado climatology for Romania. Our aim in developing this climatology was not only to show that tornadoes do occur in Romania, but also to contribute to the climatology of tornadoes in Europe by providing the spatial and temporal distribution of tornadoes over a region in Eastern Europe. In my previous post - Tornadoes in Romania: From dragons to radars, in which I have tried to tell the story behind this climatology - I haven't explained why I have included the dragon in the title. I am going to provide an explanation in this post. 

The first tornado report in Romania is from the beginning of the nineteenth century, from a period that coincides with the development of national and regional newspaper-type publications (e.g., the first Romanian newspapers, Albina Românească and Curierul Românesc, were first published in 1829) and also with the emergence of organized meteorological observations (e.g., the Prince Nicolae Şuţu included in his "Notiţii Statistice asupra Moldovei" (Statistical notes about Moldova) observations made between 1839–1840 at Iaşi). Obviously tornadoes were observed in Romania before the  nineteenth century, but without any written reports these observations were lost. One way to recover these observations is based on folklore sources.  Since tornadoes have a high impact on human communities, then they must have been represented in the Romanian folk mythology. In the paper we conjecture that in the Romanian folk mythology tornadoes are related to the figure of the dragon (balaur in Romanian) and the sorcerer (solomonar in Romanian). Andrei Oişteanu in his book "Ordine si Haos" (Order and Chaos, 2013) showed that for the folk mentality, the dragon is the Principal of Disorder, which disturbs the order of nature and human communities by bringing thunderstorms and hail. The solomonar, the Principle of Order, is a sorcerer that has the power to control the weather elements and to subdue the dragon. 

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The Dragon and the sorcerer as seen by Marcel Olinescu in "Mitologie Românească" (Romanian Mythology) (source).

The description of the dragons in the folklore sources varies from one region to another, but with some common characteristics. Thus, the dragon has a long tail “swinging when it is up into the cloud” (representing the funnel cloud) and “slapping with a loud noise when it is touching the ground” (representing the tornado itself); the dragon’s head is either the head of a crocodile or the head of a horse (representing the anvil of the cumulonimbus cloud); the dragon’s breath “is so cold that [it] is freezing the water in the clouds” thus producing large hail (sometimes associated with tornadic events); the dragon is also able to “lift people up into the clouds”.

Distribution of the folklore sources in which the tornadoes are mentioned as dragons (source).

Thus, we argue that tornadoes were not unknown events in Romania before the nineteenth century, as shown by the geographical distribution of the folklore sources in which the tornadoes are mentioned as dragons. For southeastern Romania, a region were a large number of tornadoes are reported in the recent period, no folklore sources could be identified in which tornadoes are represented as dragons. 

I would end this post with a quote from "The Dragon" (1928) by Mihail Sadoveanu (1880–1961) which I think the illustrates perfectly our conjecture about tornadoes in dragons: 

“Over Moldova [i.e, northeast Romania], beyond the Bolandars hills, the sky was moving and bending as it was turning against the earth ; and a roar beyond measure, one never heard before, filled the valleys as it was getting near; and all those present, turning their faces and staring around saw the dragon coming in a spiralling whirlwind at a great speed. I saw it with my own eyes and I trembled. It was coming straight towards us. With a thin tail like a black scroll, it was touching the ground and its body was high up in the air and its mouth was gaping like that of a lioness in the clouds.
It was coming roaring and swinging its tail; its very breath was sucking throwing into the sky haystacks, house roofs and uprooted trees. Beneath the roar, a downpour of hail and water was unleashed as if the whole Moldova riverbed was taken to the sky and then knocked down on us.”

— Mihail Sadoveanu, Excerpt from “The Dragon” (from Ancuta’s Inn, collection of short stories)

(It is interesting to note that this collection of short stories was listed as a compulsory reading for high school students during a period in which was considered that tornadoes do not occur in Romania.) 

Tornadoes in Romania: From dragons to radars

Our paper, Tornadoes in Romania - a contribution to the study of tornadoes in Eastern Europe, a region were there is a lack of tornado reports (as I showed in my previous post) - was accepted for publication in Monthly Weather Review (Mon. Wea. Rev.) [update 14 Oct. 2014: the paper is now available as an early online release]. This blog post is the story of Tornadoes in Romania. 

I begin collecting tornado reports, with the aim of developing a tornado database for Romania, in 2004 few months after I started to work as a short range forecaster for Romanian National Meteorological Administration (RNMA). At that time the general opinion was that tornadoes cannot occur in Romania, despite the previous observations of tornadoes in this country. For example, on August 2002 a F3+ long-track tornado that occurred over southeastern Romania was responsible for at least three fatalities (Lemon et al. 2003). So, why tornadoes cannot form in Romania? Lemon et al. (2003) provide this explanations:

“It has been stated publicly by senior meteorologists that the latitude of Romania (∼45° north) was too far north to permit tornadoes. Beyond that, little explanation has been given except in newspapers where it was stated that tornadoes are ‘confined to the tropics’.”

— Lemon et al. (2003, p. 392)

This situation resulted in what Doswell III (2003) described as a self-fulfilling prophecy: since the existence of tornadoes in Romania was denied, then no records were keep for such events, and when tornadoes do occurred they were not reported.

This situation began to change after 2004 due: a) the efforts of a newly form severe weather forecasting group (lead by Aurora Bell), b) the implementation of the WSR-98D radar network in 2002 (which allowed the detection of the larger circulation in which the tornado is embedded, i.e., the mesocyclone) and c) increased public awareness (the Facaeni tornado and other tornadoes featured extensively in mass media). This change culiminated with the first verified tornado warning for Romania (and one of the few tornado warnings in Europe). In their paper on severe thunderstorms and tornado warnings in Europe, Rauhala and Schultz (2009) provide a description of this forecast:

“Romania issued their first tornado warning on 28 May 2005. Forecasters were alerted to the developing scenario by a convergence line in satellite imagery. Later, radar-data algorithms for mesocyclones and tornado detection were used as guidance. Because this warning was the first tornado warning issued in Romania, the mesoscale forecaster [ link], who is responsible for warnings in the Center of Operational Forecasts at the National Meteorological Administration, and the synoptic forecaster, discussed with the deputy director and with a severe-weather expert before issuing the warning. The warning was issued for an area approximately 170 km2 . Ten minutes after the tornado warning was issued, a local TV station reported a funnel cloud ”

— Rauhala and Schultz (2009, p. 373)

Despite the accumulated evidence from mass-media, from the general public, and from the damage surveys conducted by a small team from RNMA (that included Aurora Bell, Sorin Burcea, Daniel Carbunaru, and Carolina Oprea among others) the general view that tornadoes cannot occur in Romania persisted. To provide more convincing arguments (in 2005 the Romanian tornado database comprised only few cases) we needed to show that tornadoes were observed in the past in Romania.  

In 2006, the only historical report that we had in the database was of a tornado that occurred in Bucharest on 9 June 1886. This tornado was discovered in  Alfred Wegener's  book on tornadoes and waterspouts in Europe. The reference provided by Wegener for the Bucharest tornado was a paper by Stefan Hepites (the founder of the Romanian Meteorological Institute) published in Ciel et Terre (a Belgium journal devoted to astronomy and meteorology). Hoping that we will be able to find references to other tornadoes that occurred before 1886, we ask for a copy of this paper from the Société Royale Belge d'Astronomie, de Météorologie et de Physique du Globe. Unfortunately, the paper, an excellent case study of the event, contained a single reference to a paper describing the same event published in the Annals of the Romanian Meteorological Institute. Fortunately, the library of RNMA had copies of the Annals published between 1885 and 1915. Thus, I have spend almost one year going through the entire collection of the Annals, learning about the history of meteorology in Romania, reading the studies of the Romanian meteorologists and discovering new tornado cases. At the end of 2007 we had the first version of the Romanian tornado database and for the next 6 year, together with my colleagues from RNMA we developed the database adding new tornado reports and trying to find historical reports.

In 2013, with more than 100 tornado reports in the database (from 1886–2013, with only six reports between 1945–1989 corresponding to the period during which Romania was socialist country) we decided to write the first climatology of tornadoes in Romania and thus to provide the definite proof that tornadoes do occur in Romania (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. Tornadoes reported in Romania between 1822 and 2013. (click on the image to explore the details) 

The paper was submitted to Mon. Wea. Rev. and during the review process I have discovered through an excellent on line resource more historical tornado reports. Thus, the version of the study that will be published in Mon. Wea. Rev. is based on a database extending back to 1822. Trough this article we hope that we have provided the evidence that tornadoes do occur in Romania, and we hope that we have made a small contribution toward a pan-European tornado database that will provide the basis for understanding the tornado threat in Europe.

Reaching the end of this post you may ask were are the dragons from the title ? I can tell you, but I think is better to let you discover by reading the paper. 

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